Researchers Use AI to Compare Competing Scientific Models
Researchers at the ELLIS Institute Tübingen and the University of Tübingen say AI can speed up scientific modelling, but only if it shows the range of plausible explanations rather than handing over a single model.
Jakob Macke, Daniel Gedon and Stefan Wahl, writing in a guest post for Anthropic, set out how AI is changing three parts of scientific work: building a model, fitting it to measurements and interpreting what it says about the real world. Their central warning is that a model which reproduces the data is not necessarily an explanation. Many different models can fit the same results, and an AI agent that returns just one hides the alternatives.
The more established advance is in fitting models. A method called simulation-based inference runs a computer model repeatedly with different settings, then trains a neural network to work backwards from an observed result to the range of settings that could have produced it. The simulations can take weeks, but once trained the network can analyse new data in seconds. The approach has been used in cosmology, structural biology and geophysics; when two neutron stars collide, it can estimate their location quickly enough for telescopes to be pointed while the signal is still detectable.
The newer step is letting AI design the model itself. Systems appearing over the past two years use a large language model to write candidate models as code, test them against data and revise them. The researchers argue that these systems should also produce a spread of plausible models, with weaker candidates discarded and new variations built on stronger ones. Features shared by all the survivors are likely to matter; disagreements show where another experiment is needed. But the evidence is thin where it counts most: these systems have mostly been tested on rediscovering models scientists already know, with sparse evidence on unanswered problems.
The historical comparison makes the stakes clear. In 1951, Andrew Huxley spent more than three weeks solving nerve-cell equations on a hand-cranked calculator after Cambridge University's computer went out of action for six months. An AI system could plausibly find a similar equation in an afternoon. Yet Hodgkin and Huxley's crucial insight came from knowing that simpler versions failed: their fourth-power term suggested four moving parts in a cell-membrane gate, a hypothesis later supported by protein structure. Interpretation remains the hardest step to automate, because there is no clear way to measure whether an AI system understands a system rather than merely fits its data.